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Avalanche (AVAX) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+35%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
AVAX moves ~10 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch AVAX for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-8% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
707
Normalized
730
707
Prepared
25
707
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+37% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avalanche (AVAX) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 10 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
686
A: 2 / B: 684
Series A
Avalanche (AVAX)
AVAX
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7547
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0339
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: crypto-avax_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y