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AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) vs Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Correlation
of % moves
+23%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
AVAV moves ~14 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch AVAV for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-4% → +46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
506
Normalized
1,253
506
Prepared
61
506
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
+35%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 14 months from now?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-39%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
449
A: 2 / B: 447
Series A
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)
AVAV
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0325
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0083
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_stock-avav_monthly_5y