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Cosmos (ATOM) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+36%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
23
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ATOM moves ~4 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch ATOM for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-8% → +69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
800
Normalized
730
800
Prepared
25
800
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Cosmos (ATOM) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
779
A: 2 / B: 777
Series A
Cosmos (ATOM)
ATOM
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
91.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1102
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0333
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-atom_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y