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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs U-6 Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-13%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
26
These move opposite each other about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~14 months before ATCH
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on ATCH.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → +28%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
26 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
572
387
Normalized
572
387
Prepared
28
387
Aligned
26
26
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
26
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+50% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 14 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-48%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+16%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
363
A: 2 / B: 361
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 572 raw → 28 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0080
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-u6rate_stock-atch_monthly_5y