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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
28
These move in the same direction about 30% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Total Consumer Credit moves ~9 months before ATCH
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on ATCH.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → +18%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
28 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
619
1,001
Normalized
619
1,001
Prepared
30
1,001
Aligned
28
28
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
27
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -17 to 17 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-58%
+37% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 9 months ago?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+3%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
975
A: 2 / B: 973
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 619 raw → 30 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,001 raw → 1,001 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0027
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-atch_monthly_5y