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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-13%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
134
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ATCH moves ~9 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch ATCH for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-29% → +5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
134 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
650
1,706
Normalized
650
1,706
Prepared
136
1,706
Aligned
134
134
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
133
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+9 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 9 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 9 weeks from now?"
124 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 weeks
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,574
A: 2 / B: 1572
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 650 raw → 136 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,706 raw → 1,706 prepared
Sign agreement
1.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1078
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0072
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-atch_weekly_5y