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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+15%
In sync
of periods
75%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
27
These move in the same direction about 75% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~9 months before ATCH
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on ATCH.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+15%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-26% → +52%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
27 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
585
797
Normalized
585
797
Prepared
29
797
Aligned
27
27
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
2.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
27
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -9 to 9 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-57%
+42% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 9 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-57%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
772
A: 2 / B: 770
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 585 raw → 29 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0826
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0447
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-atch_monthly_5y