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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+19%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-09
32
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ATCH moves ~15 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch ATCH for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
651
537
Normalized
651
537
Prepared
32
537
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
31
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+32% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 15 months from now?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+63%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
505
A: 0 / B: 505
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 651 raw → 32 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 537 raw → 537 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0488
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0216
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-atch_monthly_5y