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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-12%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
119
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~11 weeks before ATCH
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on ATCH.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-12%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-30% → +6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
572
2,878
Normalized
572
2,878
Prepared
119
2,878
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-21%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 11 weeks later. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 11 weeks ago?"
107 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 weeks
-21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,759
A: 0 / B: 2759
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 572 raw → 119 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,878 raw → 2,878 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0064
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-atch_weekly_5y