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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-12%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-31
129
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ATCH moves ~11 weeks before 15Y Mortgage Rate
Watch ATCH for an early read on 15Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-12%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-29% → +5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
129 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
619
1,823
Normalized
619
1,823
Prepared
129
1,823
Aligned
129
129
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
128
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-19%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 11 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 11 weeks from now?"
117 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 weeks
-19%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
74 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,694
A: 0 / B: 1694
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 619 raw → 129 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,823 raw → 1,823 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0084
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-atch_weekly_5y