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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
19%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
27
These move opposite each other about 19% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~14 months before ATCH
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on ATCH.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
19.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → +16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
27 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
572
242
Normalized
572
242
Prepared
28
242
Aligned
27
27
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
27
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -16 to 16 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+49% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 14 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
216
A: 1 / B: 215
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 572 raw → 28 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_stock-atch_monthly_5y