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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
26
These move opposite each other about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
ATCH moves ~10 months before Monetary Base
Watch ATCH for an early read on Monetary Base.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-68% → +1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
26 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
572
807
Normalized
572
807
Prepared
28
807
Aligned
26
26
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
26
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
-54%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with Monetary Base 10 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-2%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
783
A: 2 / B: 781
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 572 raw → 28 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0121
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0064
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_stock-atch_monthly_5y