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AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
30
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ATCH moves ~6 months before Monetary Base
Watch ATCH for an early read on Monetary Base.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-62% → +5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
30 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
649
811
Normalized
649
811
Prepared
32
811
Aligned
30
30
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
29
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH) today line up with Monetary Base 6 months from now?"
23 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+0%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
783
A: 2 / B: 781
Series A
AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (ATCH)
ATCH
Stock · 649 raw → 32 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0102
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0047
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_stock-atch_monthly_5y