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Correlation
of % moves
+43%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
666
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+36% → +49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
666 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
14,015
668
Normalized
14,015
668
Prepared
14,015
668
Aligned
666
666
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
665
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
665 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
81 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,351
A: 13349 / B: 2
Series A
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 14,015 raw → 14,015 prepared
Series B
ARKB
Stock · 668 raw → 668 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0052
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_stock-arkb_daily_5y