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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
506
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
506 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,110
506
Normalized
11,110
506
Prepared
534
506
Aligned
506
506
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
506
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
506 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
28
A: 28 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
88.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4291
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2353
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y