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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
231
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
233
507
Normalized
233
507
Prepared
233
507
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
88%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
231
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
231 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 2 / B: 276
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 507 raw → 507 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4.1838
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y