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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
506
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
506 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,880
506
Normalized
2,880
506
Prepared
663
506
Aligned
506
506
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
506
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-71%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 18 months from now?"
464 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
157
A: 157 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 663 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3235
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.7706
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-mortgage30us_monthly_5y