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Correlation
of values
+74%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
427
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US Gas Price moves ~14 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch US Gas Price for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+74%
Based on values
95% CI
+69% → +78%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
427 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
506
1,862
Normalized
506
1,862
Prepared
506
431
Aligned
427
427
Invalid removed
R²(i)
54.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
427
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with US Gas Price 14 months ago?"
393 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
53 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
83
A: 79 / B: 4
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 431 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5167
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7981
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-gasregw_monthly_5y