Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
506
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
506 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
863
506
Normalized
863
506
Prepared
863
506
Aligned
506
506
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
506
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 18 months from now?"
464 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-23%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
357
A: 357 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 863 raw → 863 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2274
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.4089
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y