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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~69% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+79% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
506
5,121
Normalized
506
5,121
Prepared
506
246
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
69.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+91%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
200 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
268
A: 264 / B: 4
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
10.3773
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
73.4475
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dtwexemegs_monthly_5y