Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+14%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
314
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~15 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+14%
Based on values
95% CI
+3% → +25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
314 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
506
6,606
Normalized
506
6,606
Prepared
506
317
Aligned
314
314
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
314
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+22%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 15 months ago?"
299 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+14%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+22%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
195
A: 192 / B: 3
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
55407.5260
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-87574.9016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y