Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
506
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
NZD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch NZD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
+27% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
506 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
506
13,869
Normalized
506
13,869
Prepared
506
665
Aligned
506
506
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
506
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+47%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
464 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
159
A: 0 / B: 159
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0257
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5670
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dexusnz_monthly_5y