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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
506
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef moves ~18 months before USD/NOK Exchange Rate
Watch Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef for an early read on USD/NOK Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
506 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
506
13,884
Normalized
506
13,884
Prepared
506
665
Aligned
506
506
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
506
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+66%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/NOK Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with USD/NOK Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
464 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
159
A: 0 / B: 159
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.9019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dexnous_monthly_5y