SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 46% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-94%) is 3.1σ from the long-run average of +86% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+25%) than when both rise (+5%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
387 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+86%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+83% → +88%
Likely range
R²
73.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
46.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
387
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
387 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
505
8,138
Normalized
505
8,138
Prepared
505
390
Aligned
387
387
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
121
A: 118 / B: 3
Series A
APU0000703112
FRED · 505 raw → 505 prepared
Series B
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,138 raw → 390 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.0222
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.4102
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dexmxus_5y