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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
391
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef moves ~18 months before USD/MXN Exchange Rate
Watch Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef for an early read on USD/MXN Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+82% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
509
8,230
Normalized
509
8,230
Prepared
509
395
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
R²(i)
72%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+92%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
346 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
122
A: 118 / B: 4
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 509 raw → 509 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,230 raw → 395 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.8672
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.7919
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dexmxus_monthly_5y