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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
485
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
485 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
509
10,202
Normalized
509
10,202
Prepared
509
488
Aligned
485
485
Invalid removed
R²(i)
52%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
485
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
440 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
27
A: 24 / B: 3
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 509 raw → 509 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,202 raw → 488 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0476
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.7342
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-dbaa_monthly_5y