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Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
34
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield moves ~6 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -45%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
509
Normalized
785
509
Prepared
37
509
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
46%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
-82%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 6 months from now?"
22 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
478
A: 3 / B: 475
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 509 raw → 509 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6757
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.8063
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_monthly_5y