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Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
34
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~32% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~7 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
506
Normalized
785
506
Prepared
37
506
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
R²(i)
32.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-92%
+36% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 7 months from now?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-41%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+26%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 3 / B: 472
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7115
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.0576
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-bamlh0a0hym2_monthly_5y