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Correlation
of values
-55%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
34
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~15 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on values
95% CI
-75% → -26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
509
Normalized
785
509
Prepared
37
509
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-93%
+38% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 15 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
478
A: 3 / B: 475
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 509 raw → 509 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8116
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.4478
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_fred-bamlh0a0hym2_monthly_5y