SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+16%
of % moves
In sync
34%
of periods
History
60
months · through 2026-04
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before APP
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on APP.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+16%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-10% → +39%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
862
Normalized
1,255
862
Prepared
61
862
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
2.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+80%
+64% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does APP today line up with Fed Funds Rate 18 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-49%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
48 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
803
A: 1 / B: 802
Series A
APP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.1985
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-app_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.