SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Weak inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Applied Materials is the largest semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment manufacturer in the world. It has a broad portfolio spanning nearly every corner of the WFE ecosystem. Applied Materials holds leading market share in deposition, which entails the layering of new materials on semiconductor wafers. It is more exposed to general-purpose logic chips made at integrated device manufacturers and foundries. It counts the largest chipmakers in the world as customers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.
Market cap 321.3B · 36,500 employees
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+46%) is running 1.9σ away from the long-run average of -17%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-16%) and fall (+3%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,246 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 5Y Breakeven Inflation at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-17%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-22% → -12%
Likely range
R²
2.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,246
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,246 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
5,837
Normalized
1,255
5,837
Prepared
1,255
5,837
Aligned
1,246
1,246
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,600
A: 9 / B: 4591
Series A
Applied Materials Inc
AMAT
Market cap 321.3B · 36,500 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 5,837 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5860
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-t5yie_stock-amat_5y
T5YIE
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Strongest positive