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Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
26
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Total Consumer Credit moves ~8 months before ALAB
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on ALAB.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → +6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
26 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
559
1,000
Normalized
559
1,000
Prepared
28
1,000
Aligned
26
26
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
26
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 8 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
976
A: 2 / B: 974
Series A
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB)
ALAB
Stock · 559 raw → 28 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0086
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0014
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-alab_monthly_5y