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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) vs Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock (AFRM)
Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-28
1,102
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+36% → +46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,102 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,102
1,254
Normalized
1,102
1,254
Prepared
1,102
1,254
Aligned
1,102
1,102
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,102
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,101 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
152
A: 0 / B: 152
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)
GBTC
Stock · 1,102 raw → 1,102 prepared
Series B
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock (AFRM)
AFRM
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
54
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6399
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: stock-afrm_stock-gbtc_daily_5y