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Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
1,245
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-12% → -1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,023
Normalized
1,255
2,023
Prepared
1,255
2,023
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-7%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-7%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
164 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
788
A: 10 / B: 778
Series A
AFL
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,023 raw → 2,023 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4232
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0050
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-sofr_stock-afl_daily_5y