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American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) vs Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
Correlation
of % moves
+23%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-28
1,254
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+18% → +28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,253 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-42%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP)
AEP
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5431
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0017
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: stock-aep_stock-tmf_daily_5y