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American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
261
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-35% → -12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,876
Normalized
1,255
2,876
Prepared
262
2,876
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-24%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
260 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-24%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
147 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,616
A: 1 / B: 2615
Series A
AEP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 262 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,876 raw → 2,876 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2316
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-aep_weekly_5y