SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+57%
of % moves
In sync
70%
of periods
History
1,254
days · through 2026-05-01
These move in the same direction about 70% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+53% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,515
Normalized
1,255
2,515
Prepared
1,255
2,515
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
32.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+57%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,254 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+57%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
108 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,262
A: 1 / B: 1261
Series A
ADP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 2,515 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
16.3722
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1029.2853
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sp500_stock-adp_5y