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Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) vs NASDAQ Composite
Correlation
of % moves
+49%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
1,254
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+45% → +53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
13,932
Normalized
1,255
13,932
Prepared
1,255
13,932
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,253 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,679
A: 1 / B: 12678
Series A
ADP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,932 raw → 13,932 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5039
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_stock-adp_daily_5y