Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) vs Personal Savings Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-40%
In sync
of periods
25%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
59
These move in the same direction about 25% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → -16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
807
Normalized
1,253
807
Prepared
61
807
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 2 / B: 748
Series A
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)
ADM
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7188
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0170
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-psavert_stock-adm_monthly_5y