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Cardano (ADA) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+46%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ADA moves ~11 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch ADA for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+6% → +73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,048
Normalized
730
1,048
Prepared
25
1,048
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
21.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-52%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Cardano (ADA) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 11 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+58%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+27%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,025
A: 1 / B: 1024
Series A
Cardano (ADA)
ADA
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0012
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ada_fred-payems_monthly_5y