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Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) vs Bank Reserves
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
21
These move opposite each other about 30% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~4 months before ABVE
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on ABVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → +17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
21 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
476
807
Normalized
476
807
Prepared
23
807
Aligned
21
21
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) today line up with Bank Reserves 4 months ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
788
A: 2 / B: 786
Series A
Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE)
ABVE
Stock · 476 raw → 23 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0194
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-totresns_stock-abve_monthly_5y