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Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
96
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~3 weeks before ABVE
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on ABVE.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-27% → +13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
96 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
467
1,688
Normalized
467
1,688
Prepared
98
1,688
Aligned
96
96
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
96
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-3 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+45% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 3 weeks later. Reads: "Does ABVE today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 3 weeks ago?"
92 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 weeks
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-27%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
58 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,594
A: 2 / B: 1592
Series A
ABVE
Stock · 467 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,688 raw → 1,688 prepared
Sign agreement
2.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0557
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0174
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-abve_weekly_5y