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Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
21
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~5 months before ABVE
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on ABVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-26% → +59%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
21 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
476
796
Normalized
476
796
Prepared
23
796
Aligned
21
21
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months ago?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 2 / B: 775
Series A
Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE)
ABVE
Stock · 476 raw → 23 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1794
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0605
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-abve_monthly_5y