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Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
22
These move opposite each other about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Retail Sales moves ~7 months before ABVE
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on ABVE.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → -1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
476
412
Normalized
476
412
Prepared
23
412
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) today line up with Retail Sales 7 months ago?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
391
A: 1 / B: 390
Series A
Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE)
ABVE
Stock · 476 raw → 23 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0075
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-abve_monthly_5y