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Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
24
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~10 months before ABVE
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on ABVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-23% → +56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
481
710
Normalized
481
710
Prepared
24
710
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
-66%
+46% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 10 months ago?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+79%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
686
A: 0 / B: 686
Series A
Above Food Ingredients Inc. Common Stock (ABVE)
ABVE
Stock · 481 raw → 24 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1270
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0115
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-abve_monthly_5y