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Correlation
of % moves
+52%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
AAVE moves ~3 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch AAVE for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+52%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+13% → +77%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
671
Normalized
730
671
Prepared
25
671
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
27.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-62%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with Consumer Sentiment 3 months from now?"
19 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+59%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 2 / B: 648
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1365
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0122
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y