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Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
AAVE moves ~6 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch AAVE for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+2% → +73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
675
Normalized
730
675
Prepared
25
675
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+53%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with Consumer Sentiment 6 months from now?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
654
A: 2 / B: 652
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1392
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0077
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y