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Correlation
of % moves
-8%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
AAVE moves ~2 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch AAVE for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-8%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → +36%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
387
Normalized
730
387
Prepared
25
387
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+47% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 2 months from now?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-8%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-83%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
366
A: 2 / B: 364
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0091
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y