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Correlation
of % moves
-64%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~41% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-84% → -30%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
999
Normalized
730
999
Prepared
25
999
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
22 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-84%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
978
A: 2 / B: 976
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0170
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0011
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y