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Correlation
of % moves
-65%
In sync
of periods
23%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 23% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~42% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
23%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-65%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-84% → -31%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,003
Normalized
730
1,003
Prepared
25
1,003
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
42%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
22 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
982
A: 2 / B: 980
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0173
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y