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Correlation
of % moves
-66%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
22
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,000
Normalized
730
1,000
Prepared
25
1,000
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
43%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
981
A: 3 / B: 978
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0175
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0010
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y