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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
AAVE moves ~12 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch AAVE for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-64% → +12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,360
Normalized
730
1,360
Prepared
25
1,360
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-78%
+47% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with PPI: All Commodities 12 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-47%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,337
A: 1 / B: 1336
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y