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Correlation
of % moves
-35%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
103
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
103 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
730
2,903
Normalized
730
2,903
Prepared
106
2,903
Aligned
103
103
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
102
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
73 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,803
A: 3 / B: 2800
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 106 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,903 raw → 2,903 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0293
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-nfci_weekly_5y