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Correlation
of % moves
-22%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
M2 Money Supply moves ~5 months before AAVE
Watch M2 Money Supply for an early read on AAVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-59% → +22%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
807
Normalized
730
807
Prepared
25
807
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+50% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 Money Supply shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with M2 Money Supply 5 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-7%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
786
A: 2 / B: 784
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0015
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0035
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y