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Correlation
of % moves
-33%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
22
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Case-Shiller Home Price Index moves ~9 months before AAVE
Watch Case-Shiller Home Price Index for an early read on AAVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
472
Normalized
730
472
Prepared
25
472
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-49%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
453
A: 3 / B: 450
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0054
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0010
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y