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Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
22
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index moves ~9 months before AAVE
Watch Case-Shiller Home Price Index for an early read on AAVE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-66% → +13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
470
Normalized
730
470
Prepared
25
470
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-63%
+31% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does AAVE today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-78%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
451
A: 3 / B: 448
Series A
AAVE
AAVE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0045
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-aave_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y