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Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Correlation
of % moves
+59%
In sync
of periods
88%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move in the same direction about 88% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
88.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+15% → +83%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
240
Normalized
1,254
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+59%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0544
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_stock-aapl_monthly_5y